new study on world population : current UN Projection :---->
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The study, led by a team of researchers at University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), analysed population trends in 195 countries. It used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 to model future population in various scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates.
---- A new analysis published in The Lancet has projected that the world population will peak much earlier than previously estimated. It projects the peak at 9.73 billion in 2064, which is 36 years earlier than the 11 billion peak projected for 2100 by last year’s UN report World Population Prospects. For 2100, the new report projects a decline to 8.79 billion from the 2064 peak.
--- For India, the report projects a peak population of 1.6 billion in 2048, up from 1.38 billion in 2017. By 2100, the population is projected to decline by 32% to 1.09 billion.
--- The paper suggests that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth.
---- In the study, the global TFR is predicted to steadily decline from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100. The TFR is projected to fall below 2.1 in 183 countries.
--- the earth will be a home to 8.8 billion people by 2100., two billion fewer than current UN projection.
--- more than 23 countries , including italy, japan, poland, portugal, south korea, spain, and thailand , will see their number will diminish by atleast half by the year 2100 , according to study.
---- China's population will fall from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years as study published in the Lancet.
---- Trends in India’s total population and in the population of working age adults will follow similar trends, till 2064 India's population will increase to 1.47 billion (peak) and then decrease to 1.03 billion in 2100 end.
---- India’s TFR was already below 2.1 in 2019. The TFR is projected to have a continue a steep decline until about 2040, reaching 1.29 in 2100.
---- the world's population will be fewer than UN projection by 2 Billion due to declining fertility rate and ageing populations.
---- by the end of 21st century, 183 out of 195 countries , barring an influx of immigrants , will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels.
---- sub-saharan africa , meanwhile will triple in size to some 3 billion people , with nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 millions in 2100, second only to India's 1.1 billion.
---- because of decrease fertility and addition of world population will be less than estimated by UN leads to good news for environment by lowering the stress on food production systems and lower carbon emissions,
---- it bring significant economic opportunity for parts of sub-saharan africa , most countries outside Africa will be shrinking workforces and inverting the population pyramids, which will have profound negative impact for the economy.
---- for high income countries in this category, the best solutions for sustaining population levels and economic growth will be flexible immigration policies and social support for families who want children (pro-natal policies)
--- however, in the face of declining population , there is a very real danger that some countries might consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services with potentially devasting consequences.
---- it is imperative that women's freedom and rights are at the top of every government's development agenda. social services and healthcare system need to be overhauled to accommodate much older populations.
---- As fertility falls and life expectancy increases worldwide, the number of children under 5 is forecast to decline by more than 40% from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100, the study found.
---- at the end of 21st century , 2.37 billion people (>>25% of world's population), will be over 65 years of age by then. the number of old age people above 80 years age will balloned from 140 million to 866 million .
---- a sharp declines in the number and proportion of the working age population will also pose huge challenge in many countries as old age dependency increases and working ratio decreases..thus GDP falls for a country. societies will struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayer. for example in China the working age population will fall from 950 million (today) to 350 million (2100) i.e., 62% fall.
----the decline in India will be less steep as projected from 762 to 578 million.
---- in Nigeria by contrast , the active labour force will expand from 86 million today to more than 450 million in 2100.
---- by 2050 China's GDP will overtakes that of USA , but fall back into second place by 2100, they predicts.
--- India's GDP will rise to take the number -three spot, while france, germany , japan and UK will stay among the worlds top 10 largest economies.
---- Brazil rank will fall from 8th rank to 13th and Russia from 10th to 14th rank. historical powers Italy and Spain will declines to 25th and 28th position respectively.
--- Indonesia will be 12th ranked economy globally and Nigeria will be in top 10.
---- there will be a radical shift in the global geopolitical power . the world will be more multipolar led by India, Nigeria, China and USA as a dominant power.
---untill now, the UN forecast of world's population is 8.5 billion (by 2030) , 9.7 billion (by 2050) & 10.9 billion ( by 2100 end).
--- the difference between the UN and IHME figures hinges crucially on fertility rates. the so-called replacement rate for a stable population is 2.1 births per women. as UN assumes that countries with low fertlity today will see those rates increases on average to about 1.8 children per women over time. but this study total fertility rates will be less than 1.5 children on average
======================================
The study, led by a team of researchers at University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), analysed population trends in 195 countries. It used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 to model future population in various scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates.
---- A new analysis published in The Lancet has projected that the world population will peak much earlier than previously estimated. It projects the peak at 9.73 billion in 2064, which is 36 years earlier than the 11 billion peak projected for 2100 by last year’s UN report World Population Prospects. For 2100, the new report projects a decline to 8.79 billion from the 2064 peak.
--- For India, the report projects a peak population of 1.6 billion in 2048, up from 1.38 billion in 2017. By 2100, the population is projected to decline by 32% to 1.09 billion.
--- The paper suggests that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth.
---- In the study, the global TFR is predicted to steadily decline from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100. The TFR is projected to fall below 2.1 in 183 countries.
--- the earth will be a home to 8.8 billion people by 2100., two billion fewer than current UN projection.
--- more than 23 countries , including italy, japan, poland, portugal, south korea, spain, and thailand , will see their number will diminish by atleast half by the year 2100 , according to study.
---- China's population will fall from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years as study published in the Lancet.
---- Trends in India’s total population and in the population of working age adults will follow similar trends, till 2064 India's population will increase to 1.47 billion (peak) and then decrease to 1.03 billion in 2100 end.
---- India’s TFR was already below 2.1 in 2019. The TFR is projected to have a continue a steep decline until about 2040, reaching 1.29 in 2100.
🔴 The number of working-age adults (20–64 years) in India is projected to fall from around 748 million in 2017 to around 578 million in 2100. However, this will be the largest working-age population in the world by 2100. In the mid-2020s, India is expected to surpass China’s workforce population (950 million in 2017, and 357 million in 2100).
🔴 From 2017 to 2100, India is projected to rise up the list of countries with the largest GDP, from 7th to 3rd.
🔴 India is projected to have the second largest net immigration in 2100, with an estimated half a million more people immigrating to India in 2100 than emigrating out.
🔴 Among the 10 countries with the largest populations in 2017 or 2100, India is projected to have one of the lowest life expectancies (79.3 years in 2100, up from 69.1 in 2017).
---- by the end of 21st century, 183 out of 195 countries , barring an influx of immigrants , will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels.
---- sub-saharan africa , meanwhile will triple in size to some 3 billion people , with nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 millions in 2100, second only to India's 1.1 billion.
---- because of decrease fertility and addition of world population will be less than estimated by UN leads to good news for environment by lowering the stress on food production systems and lower carbon emissions,
---- it bring significant economic opportunity for parts of sub-saharan africa , most countries outside Africa will be shrinking workforces and inverting the population pyramids, which will have profound negative impact for the economy.
---- for high income countries in this category, the best solutions for sustaining population levels and economic growth will be flexible immigration policies and social support for families who want children (pro-natal policies)
--- however, in the face of declining population , there is a very real danger that some countries might consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services with potentially devasting consequences.
---- it is imperative that women's freedom and rights are at the top of every government's development agenda. social services and healthcare system need to be overhauled to accommodate much older populations.
---- As fertility falls and life expectancy increases worldwide, the number of children under 5 is forecast to decline by more than 40% from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100, the study found.
---- at the end of 21st century , 2.37 billion people (>>25% of world's population), will be over 65 years of age by then. the number of old age people above 80 years age will balloned from 140 million to 866 million .
---- a sharp declines in the number and proportion of the working age population will also pose huge challenge in many countries as old age dependency increases and working ratio decreases..thus GDP falls for a country. societies will struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayer. for example in China the working age population will fall from 950 million (today) to 350 million (2100) i.e., 62% fall.
----the decline in India will be less steep as projected from 762 to 578 million.
---- in Nigeria by contrast , the active labour force will expand from 86 million today to more than 450 million in 2100.
---- by 2050 China's GDP will overtakes that of USA , but fall back into second place by 2100, they predicts.
--- India's GDP will rise to take the number -three spot, while france, germany , japan and UK will stay among the worlds top 10 largest economies.
---- Brazil rank will fall from 8th rank to 13th and Russia from 10th to 14th rank. historical powers Italy and Spain will declines to 25th and 28th position respectively.
--- Indonesia will be 12th ranked economy globally and Nigeria will be in top 10.
---- there will be a radical shift in the global geopolitical power . the world will be more multipolar led by India, Nigeria, China and USA as a dominant power.
---untill now, the UN forecast of world's population is 8.5 billion (by 2030) , 9.7 billion (by 2050) & 10.9 billion ( by 2100 end).
--- the difference between the UN and IHME figures hinges crucially on fertility rates. the so-called replacement rate for a stable population is 2.1 births per women. as UN assumes that countries with low fertlity today will see those rates increases on average to about 1.8 children per women over time. but this study total fertility rates will be less than 1.5 children on average
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